The United States saw greenhouse gas emissions increase by 2.4% in 2025, reversing prior declines, while China and India experienced historic drops in coal power generation for the first time in over 50 years. This divergence highlights contrasting approaches to energy and climate policy. Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions reached a record 38.1 billion tons, up 1.1%.
In 2025, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.4% compared to 2024, according to the Rhodium Group's preliminary analysis. This marked a reversal after two years of declines, with emissions growing faster than the economy, which expanded by 1.9%. Electric utilities drove much of the increase, burning 13% more coal and seeing emissions climb 3.8%—the second such growth in a decade. High natural gas prices, up 58% at the Henry Hub facility, made coal more competitive. Emissions from buildings surged 6.8% due to colder winter weather, while transportation emissions held steady despite record travel, bolstered by hybrid and electric vehicles comprising nearly 22% of passenger car sales by November 2025.
Looking ahead, Rhodium's Taking Stock 2025 report projects U.S. emissions will fall only 26-35% below 2005 levels by 2035, down from earlier forecasts of up to 56%. In a worst-case scenario, annual reductions could slow to 0.4%, a two-thirds drop from historical rates. Factors include changes to clean energy tax credits in Congress's budget bill, Trump administration rollbacks of climate rules, and the repeal of methane standards for oil and gas. BloombergNEF anticipates a 23% decline in new wind, solar, and storage projects through 2030, with onshore wind facing a 50% cut in growth. New Treasury rules have added hurdles for developers. Despite this, solar power expanded by 34%—its fastest pace since 2017—and now 42% of the U.S. grid is carbon-free. Solar and storage made up 85% of new grid additions in the first nine months of the Trump administration.
In contrast, Asia showed progress. Coal power generation fell in China by 1.6% and in India by 3%, the first such drop since 1973, per Carbon Brief. China's electricity demand grew 5%, yet it added over 500 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity. CO2 emissions have been flat or declining since March 2024, with transport emissions down 5% from more electric vehicles and reductions in cement and steel due to slower real estate construction. India boosted clean energy capacity 44%, adding 35 gigawatts of solar, 6 gigawatts of wind, and 3.5 gigawatts of hydropower in the first 11 months. Clean energy accounted for 44% of India's coal reduction, aided by milder weather.
However, both nations continue expanding coal infrastructure, proposing 74.7 gigawatts in China and 12.8 gigawatts in India—87% of global new capacity in the first half of 2025. Many plants serve as backup during peak demand. Globally, the U.S. contributed 40% of the emissions rise, outpacing the EU, China, and India combined. China's emissions grew just 0.4%, India's 1.4%. The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C stands at 170 billion tons, equivalent to about four years at current rates. 2025 ranked as the second- or third-hottest year on record.
These trends underscore policy impacts: U.S. changes could add 0.8 to 1.2 gigatonnes of emissions by 2035, while Asian renewable growth demonstrates emissions cuts amid economic expansion. Cuts to EPA data collection may obscure future U.S. tracking as the second-largest emitter.
