Analysts at Ned Davis Research predict that bitcoin might fall as low as $31,000 if the current bear market turns into a full crypto winter, based on historical patterns. The cryptocurrency has already declined 44% from its October peak and was trading around $69,180 on Friday. While past winters have seen average drops of 84%, experts note that increasing institutional involvement could moderate future declines.
Strategists at Ned Davis Research, including chief thematic strategist Pat Tschosik and analyst Philippe Mouls, outlined their outlook in a note to clients this month. They analyzed previous bitcoin winters dating back to 2011, finding that the token typically drops an average of 84% before rebounding. These periods have lasted an average of 225 days on average.
The current downturn began in early October, marking 129 days since bitcoin's peak. From that high, it has fallen 44%, reaching about $69,180 recently. Tschosik and Mouls estimate that a escalation to a full winter could result in a 70% to 75% peak-to-trough decline, potentially bringing the price to $31,000—a further 55% drop from current levels.
However, the analysts cautioned that a severe winter is not inevitable. Bitcoin now benefits from more institutional buyers than in previous cycles, which may provide greater price stability. They observed that major bear markets have become slightly less severe over time. "Notice the winters/major bears are getting slightly less severe over time in terms of percent decline and we think that will continue," Tschosik and Mouls wrote.
Other firms have issued similar warnings recently. John Blank, chief strategist at Zacks Investment Research, suggested bitcoin could reach as low as $40,000, citing the typical duration of over a year for crypto winters. Last week, Stifel forecasted a decline to around $38,000.
This analysis comes amid a steepening sell-off in bitcoin over recent weeks, heightening discussions about further downside risks.
