With five years of hindsight, Baseball America has redrafted the 2021 MLB Draft, placing San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill at the top. The exercise highlights how the class has developed, with Merrill and fellow Padres draftee James Wood occupying the first two spots. The original draft lacked consensus, leading to significant deviations in this retrospective.
The 2021 MLB Draft, still feeling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, was considered deep due to many players returning to the pool after the shortened 2020 draft. It lacked a clear top talent, with teams selecting from high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, college pitchers Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, and Louisville catcher Henry Davis.
A scouting director at the time noted, “This year I have no expectations because it is so wide open. When I walk into that draft room the night of the draft, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was completely all over the place in terms of where guys go. Just not a lot of consensus.”
In the redraft published on December 29, 2025, none of the original top 10 picks appear in the new top 10, and five original top-10 selections, including No. 1 overall Henry Davis, are absent entirely. Merrill, originally the Padres' 27th pick after a growth spurt boosted his profile from shortstop, tops the list. He debuted sensationally in 2024 with a .292/.326/.500 slash line, earned All-Star honors, a Silver Slugger, and ninth in MVP voting, accumulating 8.4 fWAR over two seasons.
Wood, taken 62nd overall, follows as a power-hitting outfielder traded to the Nationals for Juan Soto. His 2025 All-Star season featured .256/.350/.475, 31 home runs, and 38 doubles, though with a 32.1% strikeout rate; at age 23 entering 2026, he offers the class's highest offensive upside.
Subsequent picks include Mariners pitcher Bryan Woo (original 174th), who posted a 2.94 ERA in 2025 with All-Star and fifth in Cy Young; Reds starter Andrew Abbott (original 53rd), leading draftees with 11.7 bWAR and a 2.87 ERA in 2025; and Royals catcher Blake Mitchell (original 78th), a top prospect with strong 2025 offense.
The redraft underscores the draft's unpredictability, rewarding later selections like Merrill and Wood while exposing early misses.
