As previewed in the series overview, the NFL's 2025 Christmas Day Week 17 tripleheader carries playoff stakes and injury challenges. SportsLine models and DFS expert Mike McClure spotlight overs, underdog value, and high-upside players like Jahmyr Gibbs amid quarterback absences.
SportsLine's model, simulating 10,000 iterations, projects nearly 60 points in Cowboys-Commanders (over 50.5), aligning with trends: over in 11/15 Cowboys games, their last four, 4/5 vs. Washington (including 66-point Week 7 game), 5/7 Commanders games, and all four as home underdogs.
For Lions-Vikings, McClure targets Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel), No. 3 in fantasy points among RBs for second straight year (1,662 yards, 17 TDs). Gibbs has 9 TDs in 5 games vs. Minnesota (97.6 yards/game avg.); Vikings allowed TDs to RBs in last six.
In Chiefs-Broncos, Chiefs (+13.5 underdogs) offer ATS value (underdogs 13+ are 1-10 SU but 7-4 ATS this season) despite Mahomes/Minshew knee injuries. Additional DFS targets: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, and value QBs Chris Oladokun or Max Brosmer due to injuries.
Playoff positioning adds intrigue; a parlay of top model picks offers +930 payout. McClure's picks leverage matchups, trends, and injuries for upside.