The No. 22 North Carolina Tar Heels will take on the No. 14 Virginia Cavaliers in a crucial ACC basketball game on Saturday. Virginia enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home, with the over/under set at 150.5 points. A SportsLine model projects a high-scoring affair in this noon ET tipoff at John Paul Jones Arena.
The matchup pits two ranked ACC teams against each other, with Virginia holding a strong 16-2 overall record and 5-1 in conference play, placing them third in the ACC. They boast a perfect 10-0 record at home this season. North Carolina, at 15-4 overall and 3-3 in the ACC, sits seventh in the conference but has struggled on the road with a 1-3 mark.
Recent form favors both sides heading into the game. The Tar Heels secured a 91-69 victory over Notre Dame on Wednesday, while the Cavaliers edged SMU 72-68 on January 17. The game tips off at noon ET from John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia, and can be streamed on Fubo.
Betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook list Virginia as a -6.5 favorite with a money line of -313, while North Carolina is +250 underdog. The total points line is 150.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates games 10,000 times and enters the week on a 10-1 run for over/under picks, leans toward the over. It projects a combined total of 151 points, clearing the line in over 50% of simulations. For North Carolina, Caleb Wilson is expected to lead with 17.1 points, while Virginia's Malik Thomas is projected for 16.3 points.
The model also identifies one side of the spread hitting more than 60% of the time, though specifics are available only on SportsLine. This game highlights the competitive depth in the ACC, with both teams vying for improved positioning.
