Poll places Rassemblement National ahead for 2027 presidential election
A Toluna Harris Interactive poll for RTL, published on October 8, 2025, shows the Rassemblement National (RN) as the clear favorite for the 2027 presidential election with 34 to 35 percent of voting intentions. The central bloc is collapsing and is neck-and-neck with the left for a second-round spot. The RN leads potential candidates like Gabriel Attal or Édouard Philippe.
According to the poll conducted online on October 7, 2025, among 1289 representative French people, the RN would get 35 percent of the votes in the first round if Jordan Bardella runs, and 34 percent for Marine Le Pen. This is nearly twelve points more than the RN's 2022 score. Gabriel Attal would receive 12 percent of voting intentions, while Édouard Philippe would get 15 to 16 percent, down from summer levels.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise) is credited with 14 percent in all scenarios. Raphaël Glucksmann would get 14 percent against Attal, but 12 percent against Philippe. Bruno Retailleau (The Republicans) would reach 10 to 11 percent. The central bloc and the left are tied for the second round.
Another OpinionWay poll for CNEWS, from October 6 to 7, 2025, among 1109 people, shows the RN leading a first round of snap legislative elections with 33 to 34 percent, even against a left-wing union at 24 percent. The margin of error is 1.4 to 3.1 points for both surveys.
This poll comes amid a political crisis, with governments in caretaker mode since the National Assembly's dissolution on June 9, 2024, managing about 110 days of transition. Op-eds highlight right-wing tensions, such as Retailleau's calls not to vote left in a Tarn-et-Garonne partial, favoring an RN-backed candidate.