Building on its recent sweep at the National Society of Film Critics awards, early predictions for the 2026 Oscars best adapted screenplay category position Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' as the frontrunner. The film has secured wins and nominations from key precursors including the Critics Choice Awards and USC Scripter Awards. Academy nomination voting starts soon, with official reveals on January 22.
The race for best adapted screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards continues to favor 'One Battle After Another,' directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and adapted from Thomas Pynchon's 'Vineland.' It holds a strong lead following its four wins at the National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) awards earlier this month. Updated predictions from Variety on January 9, 2026, place it ahead of contenders like 'Bugonia,' 'Hamnet,' 'Song Sung Blue,' and 'Train Dreams.'
BAFTA's longlist offers a wider field, including '28 Years Later,' 'The Ballad of Wallis Island,' 'Bugonia,' 'Frankenstein,' 'Hamnet,' 'Nuremberg,' 'One Battle After Another,' 'Pillion,' 'Train Dreams,' and 'Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery.' The USC Scripter Awards, a strong Oscar predictor for this category, nominated Anderson alongside Guillermo del Toro for 'Frankenstein' (from Mary Shelley), Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell for 'Hamnet,' and Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar for 'Train Dreams' (from Denis Johnson).
The Critics Choice Awards further boosted its profile, with nominees including 'One Battle After Another,' 'Train Dreams,' 'No Other Choice,' 'Frankenstein,' 'Bugonia,' and 'Hamnet'—and the film claiming victory. This win aligns historically with Oscar outcomes, even across different voter pools.
Uncertainty lingers with Writers Guild and final BAFTA nominations arriving after Oscar voting (January 12-16), elevating the weight of awards like Scripter. As Variety observes, 'One Battle After Another' maintains the edge in this competitive landscape.
The Academy Awards are set for March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles.
