Variety has published its early predictions for the 2026 SAG Awards, rebranded as The Actor Awards, across film and television categories. Nominations will be announced on January 7, with eligibility covering performances from January 1 to December 31, 2025, and votes from over 122,000 SAG-AFTRA members. The projections spotlight competitive fields, including ensemble frontrunners like Warner Bros.' 'One Battle After Another.'
The Screen Actors Guild Awards, now called The Actor Awards, maintain their key role in awards season despite the name change. As noted in Variety's commentary, updated November 24, 2025, the event reflects populist tastes due to its large voting body. Predictions are fluid, updated weekly based on buzz, and favor English-language works, potentially sidelining international entries.
Film Category Predictions
In the cast ensemble for motion pictures, Warner Bros.' 'One Battle After Another' leads as the predicted winner, featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn. Other nominees include Focus Features' 'Hamnet,' Netflix's 'Jay Kelly,' Warner Bros.' 'Sinners,' and Universal Pictures' 'Wicked: For Good.' Alternates feature A24's 'Marty Supreme' and Neon's 'Sentimental Value.'
For male actor in a leading role, Dwayne Johnson in A24's 'The Smashing Machine' is the top pick, followed by Michael B. Jordan in 'Sinners,' Leonardo DiCaprio in 'One Battle After Another,' Timothée Chalamet in 'Marty Supreme,' and Ethan Hawke in 'Blue Moon.'
Jessie Buckley in 'Hamnet' is predicted to win best female actor, with Cynthia Erivo in 'Wicked: For Good' as a strong contender. Supporting categories highlight Stellan Skarsgård in 'Sentimental Value' for male and Ariana Grande in 'Wicked: For Good' for female. Stunt ensemble favors Paramount Pictures' 'Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.'
Television Category Predictions
On the TV side, Netflix's 'Stranger Things' is projected to win drama series ensemble, with Apple TV's 'Severance' and 'The Morning Show' close behind. Comedy ensemble goes to Apple TV's 'The Studio,' ahead of ABC's 'Abbott Elementary' and HBO Max's 'Hacks.'
Male drama actor predictions point to Noah Wyle in HBO Max's 'The Pitt,' while Jean Smart in 'Hacks' leads female comedy. Limited series sees Michelle Williams in FX's 'Dying for Sex' for female actor and Stephen Graham in Netflix's 'Adolescence' for male. Stunt ensemble in series favors HBO Max's 'The Last of Us.'
These early forecasts underscore a crowded field, with no back-to-back film acting winners in SAG history, potentially challenging Timothée Chalamet's momentum from last year.