XRP has declined nearly 13% in November 2025, entering December amid mixed historical performance and rising ETF inflows. Institutional demand through ETFs could drive gains, but long-term holder selling poses challenges. Analysts see potential for a breakout above key resistance levels if momentum sustains.
XRP's price performance in November 2025 was weak, dropping almost 13% for the month. This sets the stage for December, a period with historically varied returns. While the average December gain stands at 69.6%, this figure is heavily skewed by an 818% surge in 2017. The median return is -3.16%, and more recent years show modest increases: 6.94% in 2024 and 1.62% in 2023.
Recent ETF developments introduce a new dynamic. XRP is riding momentum from ETF buzz, with inflows on a multi-day streak exceeding $640 million. Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, highlighted this shift, stating, “December is likely to look very different for XRP this year, mainly because institutional demand has now arrived… XRP enters the month on the back of the momentum generated from the ETF buzz, which has attracted substantial institutional interest and capital from the outset.” He emphasized that “ETF inflow sustainability will now likely be the major tailwind for XRP’s price action in December.”
However, Youssef cautioned about risks: “If the broader market environment weakens further and ETF flows reverse, XRP will likely follow BTC and ETH movements and retest $2.” On-chain data supports this caution. Long-term holders, particularly the 1–2 year cohort, reduced balances from 9.72% to 8.516% over the past month, while the 2–3 year group fell from 14.80% to 14.251%. These holders control a significant portion of the circulating supply, and their selling could pressure prices.
A cost basis heatmap reveals a cluster of 1.749 billion XRP between $2.445 and $2.460, acting as resistance. Currently trading near $2.196 after a double-bottom pattern with bounces in October and late November, XRP faces hurdles at $2.307 and $2.459. A close above $2.459 could target $2.60–$2.61, aligning with Fibonacci levels and cost-basis clusters. Youssef noted, “A more realistic target for December is $2.60. A clear breakout above $2.60 would be the first firm indication of a bullish shift.”
Downside risks include a drop below $2.119 toward $1.772 support if Bitcoin and Ethereum decline. Overall, sustained ETF demand may offset selling pressure, but XRP's path remains tied to broader market trends.