Coinbase 2026 Outlook Update: Market Cap Steady at $3.06 Trillion

As detailed in Coinbase Institutional's recent 2026 crypto trends report, the total market capitalization remains stable at $3.06 trillion amid a transition to institutional-led growth in perpetual futures, prediction markets, and stablecoins.

Coinbase Institutional published its full 2026 outlook on December 30, 2025, reinforcing the three dominant trends previously highlighted: perpetual futures now driving volume through positioning and funding post-late 2025 liquidations; prediction markets expanding beyond 2025 political volumes; and stablecoins advancing via payments infrastructure to attract institutions.

With market cap holding at $3.06 trillion, this reflects maturing dynamics, complementing earlier analysis on regulatory foundations and long-term forecasts like stablecoins nearing $1.2 trillion by 2028.

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Crypto traders on a tense trading floor monitor Bitcoin at $90K, US jobs data, and Supreme Court tariff ruling screens.
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Crypto markets brace for US jobs data and tariff ruling

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Cryptocurrency markets are treading water near flat levels as investors await key US jobs data and a potential Supreme Court decision on tariffs imposed by President Trump. Bitcoin hovers around $90,000 amid ongoing outflows from spot ETFs, while analysts detect early signs of stabilization. The focus remains on how these developments could influence Federal Reserve policy and global risk appetite.

Coinbase Institutional's latest report outlines structural shifts reshaping the crypto market in 2026, moving away from traditional boom-and-bust cycles toward institutional participation and real-world adoption. Authored by David Duong and Colin Basco, the outlook highlights perpetual futures, prediction markets, and stablecoins as key drivers. These forces are expected to test the market's ability to scale under tighter financial conditions.

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Brazil's Mercado Bitcoin has identified six trends expected to shape cryptocurrency markets in 2026. Among them, the stablecoin sector is projected to expand significantly to $500 billion. Altcoin exchange-traded funds are also anticipated to grow to $10 billion, fueled by regulatory clarity and broader adoption.

Crypto asset manager Bitwise has outlined three key conditions that could determine whether the market's strong start to 2026 leads to new highs. Bitcoin and ether have risen about 7% year-to-date, while Dogecoin has surged 29%. The firm highlights reduced liquidation risks, U.S. legislative progress, and stable equities as critical factors.

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Cryptocurrency prices that soared to records at the start of 2025 have fallen sharply by year's end, leaving investors with significant losses. Bitcoin has declined 10% over the past year, contributing to a $1 trillion wipeout in total market value. Traders are reassessing strategies amid memories of past downturns.

A survey by Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode reveals that one in four institutions believes cryptocurrency has entered a bear market, yet the majority still views bitcoin as undervalued. Despite caution, most institutions have held or increased their bitcoin exposure since October 2025. This positioning reflects a preference for bitcoin amid broader market deleveraging.

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Coinbase Global is broadening its platform beyond cryptocurrencies, introducing stock trading, prediction markets and AI-driven tools to position itself as the 'Everything Exchange.' The company aims to become the leading financial app within five years, according to its chief financial officer. These expansions were announced during a system update stream on December 17, 2025.

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