The Boston Red Sox aim to reclaim American League East supremacy in 2026 after finishing third in 2025. FanGraphs projects a tight four-team race with the team at 84-86 wins. Analysts highlight four roster-driven ways for the Red Sox to surpass expectations.
It has been eight years since the Red Sox last won the American League East, achieving 108 victories en route to a 2018 World Series title. Their subsequent playoff appearances came as AL Wild Cards, including a 2025 season where Boston posted an 89-73 record but placed third behind the 94-win Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.
FanGraphs' recent projections position the Red Sox third in the division for 2026, in a close contest with the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Baltimore Orioles, each forecasted at 84-86 wins and holding 19-32% chances to top the East. While projections serve as baselines, the Red Sox could outperform through internal growth, focusing on their current roster amid limited offseason moves.
One path involves Roman Anthony emerging as a superstar. Called up in June 2025 shortly after turning 21, the former top prospect slashed .292/.396/.463 with a 140 OPS+ and 2.7 FanGraphs WAR over 71 games, despite a slow start and a September-ending left oblique strain. Projections estimate 2.5-4 WAR for him, but his metrics suggest MVP potential if he sustains health over a full season.
Jarren Duran could recapture his 2024 form, when he earned All-Star Game MVP honors, contended for AL MVP, led MLB in doubles and triples, and posted 6.8 fWAR. His 2025 output of .774 OPS and 3.9 fWAR across 157 games marked a step back, amid trade rumors that have not materialized. Averaging his last two years would boost a lineup altered only by replacing free agent Alex Bregman with Willson Contreras.
Marcelo Mayer's breakout looms larger after Bregman's departure and the front office, led by Craig Breslow, failing to add impact infielders beyond signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa for depth. The 23-year-old's 2025 rookie stats—.228/.272/.402 in 44 games—were hampered by a right wrist injury, but his .826 OPS in the minors and status as the 2021 fourth overall pick indicate upside at second or third base.
Finally, the rotation—projected as MLB's best with Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suárez, and Bryan Bello at the forefront—holds depth with potential. Acquired Johan Oviedo showed promise post-Tommy John surgery. Injured 2025 holdovers Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval have strong histories, while prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early rank among the top left-handed pitchers with MLB experience. Kyle Harrison, 24, adds further upside. Such emergence could solidify the staff against injuries.