SportsLine's model recommends betting on Pascal Siakam to record under 4.5 assists against the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. The Indiana Pacers, struggling at 1-10 amid injuries to key guards, face a Suns team strong in defending three-point shots. Additional picks include unders for Dyson Daniels and Donovan Mitchell.
The Indiana Pacers reached the NBA Finals last season but have started the 2025-26 campaign with a 1-10 record, hampered by injuries to star guards Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin. Forward Pascal Siakam has shouldered the load, averaging 24.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. However, he has exceeded five assists only twice in his last seven games. SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and computer model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, project Siakam under 4.5 assists at +114 odds versus the Suns.
"Siakam may have 10 assist opportunities passing out to open shooters, but the Pacers are shooting like garbage from 3pt range with a dead last 29.6% team 3pt%. The Suns are in the top half of the league defending the three and are especially good at home allowing 33% 3pt shooting," said SportsLine senior data analyst Stephen Oh. He noted T.J. McConnell's recent return could reduce Siakam's playmaking duties, allowing him to focus on scoring.
Other top prop picks for Thursday include:
- Dyson Daniels (Atlanta Hawks) under 14.5 points at -120 odds. The Hawks are 6-2 without Trae Young, but Daniels' recent 18-point streak came on unsustainable 70.5% shooting. Oh projects 12.5 points, citing Daniels' 14.1 average and a 56% under rate.
"This is not a fade on the player. He is playing well, he is just not looking to score like he did for stretches last season," Oh said.
- Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) under 3.5 made three-pointers at +108 odds against the Toronto Raptors. Mitchell averages 3.5 from home but is in a shooting slump (38.8% from the field over the last three games). Oh expects the Cavaliers' balanced attack to limit his need to force threes against Toronto's athletic wings.
"The Cavs don't need Mitchell to carry them," Oh added.
The model enters Week 4 on a 26-13 roll for top-rated NBA spread picks.