Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called a snap lower house election for February 8, marking one of the most unpredictable contests in years. Factors include a gap between her high approval ratings and her party's lower support, low youth turnout, the coalition split, a far-right challenge, and the winter timing. Surveys suggest the Liberal Democratic Party could gain seats in proportional representation.
Japan's lower house election, called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after she became the country's first female leader in October, is drawing intense scrutiny. While Takaichi enjoys approval ratings above 60%, support for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lags at around 35%, raising questions about whether her personal popularity will boost votes for the party's 465 candidates.
Takaichi's strongest backing comes from younger voters, with surveys showing her approval among those under 30 more than 20 points higher than among those in their 70s. However, youth turnout remains low; in Tokyo's October 2024 election, only 36% of 21- to 24-year-olds voted, compared to 71% of 70- to 74-year-olds.
For the first time in 26 years, the LDP is contesting without its former coalition partner Komeito, which has about 8 million members through its ties to the Soka Gakkai Buddhist group. Komeito has joined the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) in the new Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), potentially diverting millions of votes from the LDP, especially in urban areas.
The far-right Sanseito party is fielding up to 190 candidates, the third-largest slate, aiming to expand from its current two seats. Targeting conservative LDP voters with pledges on stricter immigration and inflation, it follows a strong showing in July's upper house election, where it won 14 seats by drawing from the LDP.
Scheduling the poll in mid-winter breaks from the norm of autumn elections. This is only the third February lower house vote in the postwar era and the first since 1990; heavy snow in northern Japan could suppress turnout and hinder campaigning in rural areas.
A Yomiuri Shimbun survey indicates the LDP could see significant gains in the proportional representation segment, potentially reaching 72 seats from 59 in 2024, comparable to its 2021 majority. It draws support from about 50% of Takaichi Cabinet approvers and 10% of independents, on par with the CRA early in the campaign. The CRA, combining CDP and Komeito, is projected to fall short of their previous 64 seats, with limited appeal to critics of the administration and younger voters under 40.
Sanseito is likely to make substantial gains from its prior three seats, while Team Mirai could secure up to three in Tokyo with youth support. The Japan Innovation Party, LDP's current partner, may drop below 10 seats from 15.
