Banque de France sharply lowers 2026 growth forecast

Suomi

The Banque de France has revised down its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, a cut of 0.4 points from its March projections.

The revision stems from a 0.1-point contraction in GDP during the first quarter. This decline resulted from a 3.5% drop in exports, linked in particular to difficulties in the aeronautics sector.

Xavier Debrun, director general of statistics, studies and international at the Banque de France, cited "the very big and unpleasant surprise of the first quarter". The aeronautics sector is accumulating glider stocks due to an engine shortage.

Previous governors had already indicated that forecasts would be "below 0.9%". Growth is expected to resume in the following years.

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