The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is rallying support for a motion of no confidence against KwaZulu-Natal Premier Thami Ntuli, set for 15 December in Pietermaritzburg. With 37 seats, MK needs at least four more votes in the 80-seat legislature to succeed, counting on alliances with the EFF and possibly the NFP. The outcome hinges on the volatile NFP's single vote, amid tensions in the provincial unity government.
In KwaZulu-Natal's 80-seat provincial legislature, the MK party, led by Jacob Zuma, holds 37 seats following its strong performance in the 2024 elections. However, a coalition known as the government of provincial unity (GPU)—comprising the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 15 seats, the African National Congress (ANC) with 14, the Democratic Alliance (DA) with 11, and the National Freedom Party (NFP) with 1—currently governs with a slim 41-seat majority. The pivotal NFP vote comes from Mbali Shinga, who was appointed MEC for Social Development by Premier Thami Ntuli after her support helped form the GPU 17 months ago.
NFP president Ivan Barnes has instructed Shinga to back the motion, citing internal party directives and ongoing talks with MK and the EFF, which holds two seats and has confirmed its support. Barnes predicts a 40-39 vote in favor of the motion, noting that the speaker cannot break a tie. He described ridding the party of 'rotten apples' amid past factional battles, including legal disputes following the 2021 death of founder Zanele Magwaza-Msibi. Opponents label Barnes an opportunist, and he indicated the NFP could withhold support if Ntuli sacks certain MECs.
The IFP reaffirmed confidence in Ntuli, calling the motion a 'reckless attempt to destabilise the province.' ANC's Siboniso Duma expressed assurance that the coalition would hold, emphasizing service delivery over political maneuvers, though insiders revealed factional divisions and potential horse-trading with the EFF in Johannesburg. DA's Martin Meyer highlighted tensions, warning of 'bizarre scenarios' and criticizing MK's instability, including nine chief whips since June 2024. Political analyst Prof. Bheki Mngomezulu described the motion's success as uncertain, while EFF's Mongezi Twala decried the government's 'directionless' approach and ongoing negotiations for broader support.
If passed, the legislature must elect a new premier within seven days, potentially handing MK control of KZN's R158-billion budget. Thousands of supporters from opposing parties are expected to gather outside the Pietermaritzburg legislature on voting day.