NBA Christmas 2025 Preview: Odds, injuries, stats and quotes

Expanding on the initial stakes and pairings for the December 25, 2025, NBA Christmas Day slate of five games on ABC/ESPN, this update highlights betting odds, injury impacts, key stats, projections and player quotes amid roster shifts and rivalries.

Knicks vs. Cavaliers (noon ET, Madison Square Garden): Knicks (20-9) welcome back Jalen Brunson (29.1 ppg) and OG Anunoby after their Tuesday loss; Cavs (17-14) without Evan Mobley (calf). Donovan Mitchell paces Cleveland at 30.6 ppg. New York favored by 6.5 (O/U 239.5); models project 125-115 Knicks win.

Spurs vs. Thunder (2:30 p.m. ET, Oklahoma City): Spurs (22-7) on seven-game streak, having won both prior meetings including Tuesday's 130-110 rout. Victor Wembanyama (42 pts in last Christmas) vs. Chet Holmgren in 7-foot duel; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30.6 ppg, MVP frontrunner). Thunder -9.5 (O/U 235.5), projections favor under. Wembanyama: "The MVP is on that court... Anybody is hard to guard." Holmgren: "(He) does things that other lineups don’t replicate."

Mavericks vs. Warriors (5 p.m. ET, Chase Center): Klay Thompson returns to Golden State as four-time champ; Dallas (12-19) without Kyrie Irving (knee, long-term), PJ Washington/Luka Doncic day-to-day? No, wait—new has Doncic for Lakers later; here Mavs day-to-day Washington. Stephen Curry (28.7 ppg). Warriors -8.5 (O/U 227.5), models like under.

Rockets vs. Lakers (8 p.m. ET, Los Angeles): Both on two-game skids; Houston added Kevin Durant (25.2 ppg). Luka Doncic's calf clouds Lakers. Rockets -3.5 (O/U 229.5).

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (10:30 p.m. ET): Wolves surging (8-of-10 wins), renew April double-OT epic. Anthony Edwards (28.7 ppg) vs. Nikola Jokic (28.9 ppg, 12 rpg, 10.4 apg). Minnesota +3.5 (O/U 238.5).

These matchups showcase NBA depth, with simulation models providing betting edges.

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Discussions on X center on betting odds, injury impacts, and game predictions for NBA Christmas Day matchups. Analysts favor Knicks over injury-hit Cavaliers and see value in underdogs like Spurs and Mavericks. Public bets lean toward favorites such as Nuggets and Knicks, while sharps highlight trends favoring home teams and overs. Injury updates, particularly for Cavs and Lakers, shape skeptical views on spreads.

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The SportsLine Projection Model has picks for Sunday's NBA games between Knicks-Wizards, Celtics-Timberwolves and Raptors-Suns. It recommends Knicks -19.5, over 219.5 points for Celtics-Timberwolves and Raptors -2.5. The model simulates each game 10,000 times.

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