The ATP Open Sud de France in Montpellier enters its round of 16 stage with several intriguing matchups on February 4 and 5, 2026. Defending champion Felix Auger-Aliassime faces Stan Wawrinka in a first-time clash, while other French players like Arthur Fils and Titouan Droguet aim to advance. Analysts provide varied predictions based on recent form and simulations.
The ATP 250 event in Montpellier, France, known as the Open Sud de France, features a packed round of 16 lineup on indoor hard courts. Published previews highlight key battles, drawing on players' early 2026 performances and head-to-head records.
In a standout matchup, defending champion Felix Auger-Aliassime meets three-time Grand Slam winner Stan Wawrinka for the first time at the tour level. Auger-Aliassime, who has not lost before the semifinals in his last two Montpellier appearances, returns after withdrawing from the Australian Open. Wawrinka, in his final season, started with a straight-sets win over Hamad Medjedovic. One preview predicts Wawrinka in three sets due to upset potential, while simulations give Auger-Aliassime a 75% chance of victory.
Arthur Fils, returning from a back injury that ended his 2025 season early, faces lucky loser Ugo Blanchet after defeating Valentin Royer in three sets. Fils, the No. 6 seed and World No. 42, holds a career-high of No. 14 and three ATP titles. Blanchet, ranked No. 174, upset Andrea Vavassori in the first round. Odds favor Fils at -375, with a best bet on Blanchet +3.5 games at +102, anticipating a tight contest.
Other notable pairings include Ugo Humbert versus Adrian Mannarino, with Humbert holding an 81% win probability; Martin Damm against Roberto Bautista Agut (Damm 55%); Titouan Droguet rematching Aleksandar Kovacevic (Droguet 56%), following their recent Challenger encounter; and Tallon Griekspoor facing Pablo Carreno Busta (Griekspoor 57%). Additional predictions cover Luca Nardi versus Flavio Cobolli (Cobolli in three) and Droguet versus Kovacevic (Droguet in three).
These matches underscore the tournament's mix of veterans, returnees, and rising talents, with simulations run 10,000 times for probabilistic insights. No contradictions appear in the previews, though outcomes depend on fitness and execution.
