A quarter into the NBA season, young players from the last four draft classes show varied progress relative to expectations. Standouts like Jalen Duren and Kon Knueppel exceed projections, while others such as Jeremy Sochan and Dereck Lively lag behind due to injuries and inconsistencies. This evaluation highlights surprises and concerns across the 2022 to 2025 classes.
2022 Draft Class
Jalen Duren of the Detroit Pistons is ahead of schedule, averaging 19.6 points and 11.8 rebounds in 29.3 minutes per game, up from 11.8 points and 10.3 rebounds in 26.1 minutes last season. During Detroit's 13-game win streak, he posted 23 points and 12 rebounds on 69% shooting, contributing to the Pistons' Eastern Conference lead. Recently, in losses to Boston and Orlando, he averaged 14 points and 14 rebounds. Duren, 22, has improved playmaking and chemistry with Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart. Other notables include Ryan Rollins of the Bucks and Jake LaRavia of the Lakers.
Jeremy Sochan of the San Antonio Spurs is behind schedule in his contract year at age 22. He has averaged just 12 minutes over the last three games despite frontcourt shortages, going five straight games without a 3-pointer. His offensive and defensive ratings are poor, though he brings energy and physicality.
2023 Draft Class
Collin Gillespie, undrafted but with the Phoenix Suns, is ahead of schedule in his second NBA season. He averages nearly 13 points, five assists, and four rebounds on 44/43/83 shooting. Over his last eight games before facing the Lakers, he averaged 18 points, five assists, and five rebounds on 49/48/100 splits, then scored a career-high 28 points with eight 3s against Los Angeles. He ranks in the 96th percentile for catch-and-shoot and leads the league in bench assists. Others performing well: Keyonte George (Jazz), Anthony Black (Magic), Jaylen Clark (Wolves).
Dereck Lively II of the Dallas Mavericks is behind schedule, playing only seven games this season due to foot discomfort after 55 rookie games and 36 last year. He has missed more games than played since being drafted, limiting growth alongside Cooper Flagg.
2024 Draft Class
Ajay Mitchell of the Oklahoma City Thunder is ahead of schedule as a second-year guard, averaging 15 points, four assists, and four rebounds in under 27 minutes. He scored in double figures in 18 of 19 games without Jalen Williams, helping the 20-1 Thunder. His 3-point shooting is under 33%, below his 38% rookie mark. Notables: Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George (Wizards), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Kel'el Ware (Heat), Tristan da Silva (Magic), Jaylon Tyson (Cavs).
Jared McCain of the Philadelphia 76ers is behind schedule after a season-ending rookie injury. As a rookie, he averaged 15 points on 46/38/88 shooting in 23 games; this season's first 10 games show seven points on 35/38/83. He scored 20 against Brooklyn but just five versus Atlanta, raising fit concerns with Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.
2025 Draft Class
Kon Knueppel of the Charlotte Hornets is ahead of schedule, averaging 18 points on 47/42/90 shooting with six rebounds and three assists in 21 games. In his prior 11 games, he averaged 23 points on 51/44/94. His 69 made 3s in 20 games set an NBA record, ranking 92nd percentile in tough shots. He has more 20-point games than any two rookies combined and aids defensively. Fellow rookies Ryan Kalkbrenner, Sion James, and Liam McNeeley bolster the class, fueling trade rumors for LaMelo Ball. Others: Cedric Coward (Grizzlies), Will Richard (Warriors), Caleb Love (Blazers).
Brooklyn Nets' 2025 class, including four first-rounders plus Drake Powell, is behind schedule. Egor Demin needs shooting development, Danny Wolf pace adjustment, and Drake Powell, Nolan Traore, Ben Saraf are long-term projects, though the franchise excels in development.