Variety has released its predictions for the 2026 box office, highlighting a mix of franchise sequels and original films amid ongoing post-pandemic uncertainties. Major releases include Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' and Marvel's 'Avengers: Doomsday,' with Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans returning. The outlook balances sure bets like 'Toy Story 5' against riskier ventures such as Maggie Gyllenhaal's 'The Bride!.'
Movie theaters continue to navigate unpredictable attendance since the COVID-19 disruption, with 2025 seeing Marvel films underperform while unexpected successes emerged in auteur projects like 'Sinners' and anime like 'Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle.' Variety's January 5, 2026, analysis peers into the coming year, categorizing upcoming releases into sure things, safe bets, question marks, and biggest risks.
Among the sure things, Universal's 'The Super Mario Galaxy Movie' arrives April 3, capitalizing on the billion-dollar success of its predecessor and the enduring Nintendo appeal. Disney's 'Toy Story 5' follows on June 19, tackling themes of children preferring screens over toys, expected to dominate family viewership. Universal's 'The Odyssey,' directed by Christopher Nolan and starring Matt Damon, Tom Holland, and Zendaya, hits July 17, poised for summer blockbuster status akin to Nolan's past hits like 'The Dark Knight.' Sony's 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day,' with Tom Holland returning July 31, builds on the $1.9 billion haul of 'No Way Home,' though without multiverse cameos.
Safe bets include Disney's 'The Mandalorian and Grogu' on May 22, leveraging Baby Yoda's popularity from the Disney+ series despite Star Wars' streaming shift. 'Avengers: Doomsday' closes the year December 18, reuniting Downey and Evans with X-Men and Fantastic Four characters after six years since the last Avengers film. Amazon MGM's 'Verity,' based on Colleen Hoover's novel and starring Dakota Johnson and Anne Hathaway, releases October 2, following the sleeper hit 'It Ends With Us.'
Question marks feature Amazon MGM's 'Project Hail Mary' on March 20, directed by Phil Lord and Christopher Miller with Ryan Gosling, facing challenges as an original $150 million sci-fi. Universal's 'Disclosure Day' by Steven Spielberg arrives June 12, questioning if the veteran can recapture blockbuster magic. Warner Bros.' 'Clayface' on September 11 offers a fresh body-horror take on the obscure villain, while 'Practical Magic 2' reunites Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman September 18, banking on cult nostalgia despite the original's 1998 flop.
The biggest risks encompass Warner Bros.' 'The Bride!' on March 6, Maggie Gyllenhaal's steampunk Frankenstein following Guillermo del Toro's recent version. Disney's 'Hoppers,' also March 6, introduces a new Pixar animated tale of consciousness transfer to robotic animals, struggling post-'Elio's' failure. Warner Bros.' 'Digger' on October 2 pairs Tom Cruise with Alejandro G. Iñárritu in a comedy about a man averting disaster he caused, hinging on execution amid high costs.
