Variety has released its latest predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards, focusing on competitive fields like best documentary feature and best cinematography. Standouts include Geeta Gandbhir's 'The Perfect Neighbor' as an early frontrunner in documentaries and Autumn Durald Arkapaw's work on 'Sinners' in cinematography. These updates, published around November 11, 2025, capture the fluid race amid festivals like DOC NYC.
Overview
Variety's Awards Circuit provides weekly updates on Oscar contenders, curated by chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The predictions reflect current industry buzz and are subject to change based on events and polls. For the 2026 Oscars, eligibility covers films from the 2025 calendar year, with nominations voting set for January 12-16, 2026, and the ceremony slated for later that year.
Best Documentary Feature Predictions
As DOC NYC begins its 16th edition and the Critics Choice Documentary Awards announce winners, the documentary category appears wide open yet politically charged. Leading is Netflix's 'The Perfect Neighbor,' directed by Geeta Gandbhir, which explores 'stand your ground' laws via police bodycam footage. It recently won multiple Critics Choice Awards, including best documentary feature and director.
Close behind is Laura Poitras' 'Cover-Up' (Netflix), an investigative look at journalist Seymour Hersh, building on Poitras' Oscar win for 'Citizenfour.' PBS' '2000 Meters to Andriivka,' directed by Mstyslav Chernov, follows his Oscar-winning '20 Days in Mariupol' and features in DOC NYC's Short List. Other contenders include HBO's 'The Alabama Solution' by Andrew Jarecki, Apple's 'Come See Me in the Good Light' from Ryan White and Tig Notaro, and Neon's 'Orwell: 2+2=5' by Raoul Peck.
Best Cinematography Predictions
This category introduces a shortlist for the first time, with 10-20 titles announced for voting from December 8-12, 2025. Autumn Durald Arkapaw's evocative work on 'Sinners,' set in the 1930s, positions her as a potential historic nominee as one of few women in the category.
Veterans like Dan Laustsen ('Frankenstein' for Guillermo del Toro) and Łukasz Żal ('Hamnet' with Chloé Zhao) are strong bets, with past nominations boosting their cases. Newer talents include Adolpho Veloso ('Train Dreams') and Michael Bauman ('One Battle After Another'), the latter tied to a major frontrunner. Additional mentions are 'F1.'
Broader Context
General predictions highlight films like 'One Battle After Another,' 'Hamnet,' 'Sinners,' and 'It Was Just an Accident' across categories. The race emphasizes socially conscious storytelling and technical excellence, with streamers like Netflix and HBO in contention.
