The knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic features eight teams, with experts largely predicting the Dominican Republic to claim the title. Team USA advanced to the quarterfinals despite a loss to Italy, facing Canada next. Japan and the Dominican Republic remain unbeaten entering the single-elimination bracket.
The 2026 World Baseball Classic has reached its single-elimination knockout stage, with quarterfinal games set for Friday and Saturday at Daikin Park in Houston and loanDepot Park in Miami. Semifinals will follow on Sunday and Monday in Miami, culminating in the championship game on Tuesday at the same venue, where Shohei Ohtani once struck out Mike Trout to end the 2023 final.
Team USA secured a quarterfinal spot after Italy defeated Mexico on Wednesday, despite the Americans' earlier loss to Italy in pool play. Italy finished pool play undefeated at 4-0, while Japan, the defending 2023 champions, and the Dominican Republic also entered the bracket without defeats. Starting pitchers for the quarterfinals include Seth Lugo for Puerto Rico, Hyun-Jin Ryu for Korea, Cristopher Sánchez for the Dominican Republic, Ranger Suárez for Venezuela, Logan Webb for Team USA, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Japan. A new 80-pitch limit allows these starters more innings.
Team USA is heavily favored against Canada in their Friday quarterfinal, with -900 odds on DraftKings, and +130 to win the tournament overall. CBS Sports MLB experts mostly back the Dominican Republic to prevail. R.J. Anderson (Axisa) noted, "I picked the Dominican Republic to win before the WBC started, and the team has given me no reason to doubt. The lineup is deep and powerful, the rotation is the best the D.R. has ever had in the WBC, and the bullpen is one 100-mph reliever after another."
Dan Feldman added, "The Dominican Republic has been my pick since the get-go. The D.R. is just too good. The pitching is great. The hitting is even better." Jennifer McWilliams highlighted Team USA's issues: "Team USA has a loaded roster, but some arrogance and indifference that was on display against Italy will be exposed by the D.R. in the semis." David Perry emphasized the Dominican roster's star power, comparing it favorably to Team USA's. Matt Snyder picked Team USA with his heart but foresaw Venezuela potentially upsetting Japan.
Overall, experts see the Dominican Republic's depth as a key edge in the bracket.
