With two weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL regular season, the NFC playoff picture remains fluid, particularly in the South division and for the top seed. The Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will decide the NFC South title in their Week 18 matchup, while the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers vie for the No. 1 overall seed. Several teams have already clinched postseason berths, but key spots and byes are still contested.
The 2025 NFL season heads into its final stretch with significant stakes in the NFC. ESPN Analytics tracks playoff probabilities using live win odds and the Football Power Index, updating projections throughout Weeks 17 and 18.
In the NFC South, the division winner secures the conference's final playoff spot. Both the Panthers and Buccaneers suffered losses in Week 17: Carolina fell to the Seahawks, and Tampa Bay was defeated by the Dolphins. Their head-to-head game in Tampa on Week 18 will determine the victor, with the loser eliminated from postseason contention.
The race for the NFC's No. 1 seed, which includes a first-round bye and home-field advantage, has narrowed to two teams. The Seahawks took an early step by beating the Panthers on Sunday afternoon. Later that night, the 49ers overcame the Bears, setting up a decisive Week 18 clash between Seattle and San Francisco for the NFC West title and the top seed.
Twelve teams have already locked in playoff appearances: the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Bears, 49ers, Packers, and Texans. However, one NFC spot and four division titles remain undecided. No. 1 seeds in either conference have yet to be clinched.
Beyond the playoffs, non-qualifiers eye the 2026 NFL Draft, scheduled for April 23 in Pittsburgh. Projections for the bottom 18 teams' draft order are updated based on current standings, accounting for traded picks—including those from the Falcons to the Rams, Jaguars to the Browns, Colts to the Jets, and Packers to the Cowboys.
