The 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the 6-3 Buffalo Bills as road underdogs in Week 11, with most NFL analysts favoring the home team at Highmark Stadium. Predictions highlight Buffalo's strong home record and motivation after a recent loss. Tampa Bay seeks its first win in Buffalo amid concerns over chilly weather.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with a 6-3 record, travel to Buffalo for a Week 11 matchup against the similarly 6-3 Bills, marking their second consecutive game against an AFC East contender. The Buccaneers aim for their first-ever victory in Buffalo and a third win against an AFC opponent this season, following triumphs over Houston and the New York Jets. However, they enter as 6.0-point underdogs, with forecasts predicting low temperatures and possible rain showers in Western New York.
Analysts point to Buffalo's advantages, including extra motivation after a lackluster Week 10 loss in Miami, leaving the Bills two games behind the Patriots in the standings. The Bills boast an NFL-best 83% win rate in regular-season home games at Highmark Stadium since the start of the decade (39-8 record) and hold the longest active streak of nine straight November victories dating back to 2023. Home teams have won 54.7% of games this season overall.
Tampa Bay's supporters highlight the Bills' struggling run defense and inconsistent passing game, plus the Buccaneers' plus-eight turnover margin. NFL.com analyst Ali Bhanpuri explained his Bills pick: "Because this game will be played in Buffalo. Home-field advantage can often be a bit overstated; after all, home teams have won at just a 54.7% clip this season. But the Bills aren't just any average team when they play at Highmark Stadium: They've won an NFL-best 83% of their regular-season home games since the start of the decade (39-8), and have been particularly potent when the calendar flips to November, capturing nine straight dating back to the 2023 season (longest active streak)."
Expert consensus leans heavily toward Buffalo:
- NFL.com: All five analysts pick the Bills.
- ESPN.com: Nine of 11 select Buffalo, with only Jeremy Fowler and Jason Reid backing the Buccaneers.
- CBSSports.com: Pete Prisco predicts a Bills victory.
- USA Today: All six experts favor Buffalo, often in close games.
- Bleacher Report: Seven analysts split 4-3 toward Buffalo against the spread.
- Pro Football Talk: Mike Florio and Chris Simms pick the Buccaneers but not in their favor.
- Sports Illustrated: All six choose the Bills.
- Sporting News: Bill Bender forecasts a three-point Bills win.
The game will be played on a potentially wet and chilly Sunday at Highmark Stadium.