The Orlando Magic host the Dallas Mavericks in a cross-conference NBA matchup on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at the Kia Center. Orlando enters with a 32-28 record and the No. 7 spot in the East, while Dallas sits at 21-40 after four straight losses. The Magic are 7.5-point favorites with an over/under of 229.5 points.
The game tips off at 7 p.m. ET in Orlando, where the Mavericks travel to face a Magic team dealing with several injury concerns. For Dallas, star rookie Cooper Flagg is questionable with a foot injury. Orlando lists Anthony Black (quad), Jonathan Isaac (knee), and Wendell Carter Jr. (ankle) as questionable, while Franz Wagner is out with an ankle issue.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Magic are 7.5-point favorites, with a money line of -325 for Orlando and +258 for Dallas. The over/under for total points is set at 229.5.
SportsLine's Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has a strong track record, returning over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated picks over eight-plus seasons. It entered Week 20 on a 41-18 roll for top-rated spread picks dating back to last season. For this matchup, after 10,000 simulations, the model predicts the game will go over the total of 229.5 points, projecting 230 combined points. It notes that four of Orlando's past six games have cleared the total, with 51% of their season games and 53% of home games hitting the over. The over/under has dropped one point from the opening line, which the model sees as value on the over side.
The model also identifies one side of the spread as better value but does not specify it here. The game can be streamed on Fubo.
