Mexico gears up for a pivotal 2026 in its economy, with potential in investment and mergers and acquisitions, but regulatory uncertainty poses risks. While nearshoring provides structural advantages, the local transaction slump contrasts with recovery in the United States. Experts emphasize the need for certainty to draw global capital.
The year 2026 marks a crucial juncture for Mexico's economy amid global investment, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and international trade dynamics. As noted by Jorge León Orantes, Mexico boasts appealing structural conditions but has not leveraged them as effectively as rivals. In 2025, U.S. M&A activity surged 49% from 2024, whereas Mexico saw a 36.5% decline, highlighting investor caution driven by institutional and regulatory factors.
From the latter half of 2025, global megadeals have reemerged, weathering geopolitical strains. In Mexico, the potential formation of a holding company between Viva Aerobús and Volaris will test the new National Antimonopoly Commission, whose technical independence is vital for market perceptions. In finance, Grupo Carso's investment in Banamex signals a comeback of major deals, echoing expected U.S. bank mergers.
Global momentum focuses on technology, artificial intelligence, energy, and infrastructure—sectors where Mexico engages modestly, prioritizing manufacturing and financial services tied to nearshoring. Lower interest rates ease large-scale financing, yet capital demands legal certainty and institutional stability. Government moves, including Pemex's initial mixed contracts and the proposed Mixed Investments Law, aim to draw private funds into energy, telecom, and transport.
Renegotiating the North American trade agreement presents an opportunity to bolster regional ties. Without firm signals of certainty, however, Mexico risks ceding ground to competitors. Success hinges on transparency and long-term vision to secure its nearshoring position.
