Variety has released its latest predictions for the 2026 Oscars acting races, highlighting tight competitions in Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor. The forecasts, updated on January 20, 2026, reflect recent precursor awards and ongoing buzz. Nominations will be announced on January 22, with the ceremony set for March 15 at the Dolby Theatre.
Variety's Awards Circuit, curated by chief awards editor Clayton Davis, provides weekly updates on Oscar contenders based on current standings from formal and informal polls. These predictions do not reflect personal preferences and are subject to change with emerging buzz.
In Best Supporting Actor, Variety predicts a close race among Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, Jacob Elordi, Paul Mescal, and Stellan Skarsgård. Commentary notes, "This looks like a tight five (unless it isn’t)," with potential surprises from Andrew Scott in “Blue Moon” or Miles Caton in “Sinners.” The Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) nominated Caton (“Sinners”), Del Toro and Penn (both for “One Battle After Another”), Elordi (“Frankenstein”), and Mescal (“Hamnet”), snubbing Skarsgård. BAFTA's longlist includes Del Toro, Penn, Elordi, Mescal, Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), Peter Mullan (“I Swear”), Adam Sandler (“Jay Kelly”), Scott, Alexander Skarsgård (“Pillion”), and Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”). Elordi won at the Critics Choice Awards, beating Del Toro, Mescal, Penn, Sandler, and Skarsgård. Golden Globes nominees feature Del Toro, Elordi, Mescal, Penn, Sandler, and Skarsgård.
For Best Actress, the category is described as "chaos." Top predictions include Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”), Renate Reinsve, Emma Stone, Kate Hudson, Chase Infiniti, and Rose Byrne, with Amanda Seyfried as a possible addition. Actor Awards nominees are Buckley, Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”), Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”), and Stone (“Bugonia”). BAFTA's list adds Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked: For Good”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Die My Love”), Andrea Riseborough (“Dragonfly”), Tessa Thompson (“Hedda”), and more. Buckley won Critics Choice over Byrne, Infiniti, Reinsve, Seyfried, and Stone. Golden Globes split drama nominees (Buckley, Lawrence, Reinsve, Julia Roberts (“After the Hunt”), Thompson, Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”)) and comedy (Byrne, Erivo, Hudson, Infiniti, Seyfried, Stone).
Best Actor predictions favor Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura, though surprises like Joel Edgerton (“Train Dreams”) or Oscar Isaac (“Frankenstein”) loom. Actor Awards nominees include Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Jordan (“Sinners”), and Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”). BAFTA broadens to Robert Aramayo (“I Swear”), Russell Crowe (“Nuremberg”), Edgerton, Harry Melling (“Pillion”), Cillian Murphy (“Steve”), and others. Chalamet won Critics Choice against DiCaprio, Edgerton, Hawke, Jordan, and Moura. Golden Globes drama nominees are Edgerton, Isaac, Dwayne Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”), Jordan, Moura (“The Secret Agent”), and Jeremy Allen White; comedy includes Chalamet, George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”), DiCaprio, Hawke, Lee Byung-hun (“No Other Choice”), and Plemons.
Nominations voting runs from January 12 to 16, with official reveals on January 22. The 98th Academy Awards air live on ABC from the Dolby Theatre on March 15.
