Baird analyst Ben Kallo has maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla with a $548 price target, highlighting the company as a core holding ahead of key developments in 2026. Shares have risen 21% year-to-date in 2025 and 7% in the last month, outperforming the S&P 500. The firm anticipates announcements on robotaxi services, Optimus robotics, and expansions into new markets.
Tesla (TSLA) enters 2026 with several potential catalysts that could influence investor sentiment, according to Baird analyst Ben Kallo. In a note dated December 30, 2025, Kallo wrote that despite a sluggish start to the year, TSLA has gained 21% year-to-date and 7% in the last month, surpassing the S&P 500 on both metrics. He emphasized the firm's desire to "own TSLA into the new year" and continues to view the company as "a core holding."
Key areas of focus for 2026 include advancements in autonomous driving and robotics. Baird expects "a year of several announcements regarding robotaxi service," with potential expansions into new geographies, revenue recognition from autonomous mobility, and regulatory approvals in markets like China and the European Union. On the robotics front, updates on Optimus production and timelines for commercialization are anticipated, alongside higher-volume production of the Tesla Semi and sustained growth in the Energy segment.
The analysts have updated their financial model through 2030, adjusting for vehicle mix, average selling prices, and delivery assumptions. They removed prior expectations for a Model 2, noting it was ultimately a new variant of the Model 3/Y, and their estimates do not include capacity expansions beyond 3 million units annually. For autonomy, Baird reiterated projections for paid robotaxi services beginning in 2027 and first commercial Optimus sales in late 2027. Positive developments include "positive data points for FSD," such as praise for Full Self-Driving version 14 from Nvidia’s robotics team.
Baird's $548 price target is based on approximately 70 times its 2030 EBITDA estimate, discounted to year-end 2026. These AI-driven initiatives, including robotaxi rollouts and Optimus commercialization, position Tesla for growth in the electric vehicle and robotics sectors.
