Bitcoin is on track for its weakest October in a decade, down 5% so far this month amid macroeconomic pressures. Historically known as 'Uptober' for strong gains, the cryptocurrency has been overshadowed by U.S.-China tariff tensions and market liquidations. With two weeks remaining, a late recovery remains possible based on past patterns.
Crypto traders have dubbed October 'Uptober' due to its reputation for delivering significant bitcoin rallies, with a historical average gain of 19.8%. November follows as the asset's strongest month at 42%. However, 2025's October is diverging sharply, marking the worst performance since 2015 with a 5% decline month-to-date. As of late Asian hours on Sunday, bitcoin traded near $107,000, according to CoinGlass data.
Macroeconomic risks have dominated, including the U.S.-China tariff standoff, weak liquidity, and a series of leveraged position washouts that capped potential upside. Last week's slide below $107,000 triggered $1.2 billion in liquidations, primarily affecting long positions established after September's rebound. The downturn has rippled across the market: Ethereum, Solana, and BNB each fell 4% to 7% over the week, while smaller tokens like DOGE at $0.1949 and ADA at $0.6510 dropped more than 20%. The CoinDesk 20 Index is down 8% for October.
Such a negative October is uncommon; bitcoin has closed the month lower only twice in the past 12 years, in 2014 and 2018, the latter with a 3% decline. Yet history offers hope for reversal: in 2020, an early October loss turned into a 27% rally by month's end, paving the way for record highs the following year. With two weeks left, the calendar still allows room for a turnaround, though current conditions are testing the 'Uptober' moniker.