Canada enters technical recession with two quarters of contraction

Canada has entered a technical recession after recording two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth starting from Q4 2025. Canadian stocks rose on the final trading day of May despite the news.

The development follows negative real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Markets showed resilience as equities advanced at the end of the month.

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Illustration of Mexico's economy showing GDP contraction with charts and Mexico City skyline
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Mexico economy contracts 0.6 percent in first quarter of 2026

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Mexico's gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the first quarter compared with the prior period, according to final Inegi data released Friday. The contraction was smaller than expected and revives debate over possible further rate cuts by Banxico.

Real GDP grew at a 1.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2026. The figure fell short of the 2.0 percent forecast but showed an increase from the 0.5 percent rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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India's economy expanded 7.8 percent in the March quarter, beating forecasts and lifting full-year growth for fiscal 2026 to 7.7 percent. The result was supported by strong private investment and consumption.

The latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) from the Banco Central has raised inflation expectations for March and the rest of 2026. Consultancies forecast 3.0% for March, with an annual projection of 29.1%. They also updated estimates for the dollar, GDP, and unemployment.

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Argentina's monthly economic activity estimator (EMAE) recorded a 2.1% year-over-year drop and a 2.6% seasonally adjusted decline in February 2026, INDEC reported. Manufacturing industry contracted 8.7% and commerce 7.0% year-over-year.

Colombia's economy grew 2.2% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, according to Dane data. The main driver was state spending on consumption and public administration.

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