Global CO₂ emissions are projected to rise by 1.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, according to an international research group at the University of Exeter in their Global Carbon Budget 2025 report. This could exhaust the CO₂ budget needed to meet the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement before 2030. The researchers deem it no longer realistic to limit global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The University of Exeter's research group estimates that by the end of 2025, around 38.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ will enter the atmosphere. "Given the continued rise in CO₂ emissions, it is no longer realistic to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius," states Pierre Friedlingstein, professor at the University of Exeter.
Developments vary significantly across countries. Emissions are rising by 1.9% in the US, 1.4% in India, and 0.4% each in China and the European Union. Positively, 35 countries have reduced their CO₂ output, including Australia, Israel, New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan. This is nearly twice as many countries as ten years ago.
An encouraging trend is evident in forest protection: Environmental policies have significantly reduced global deforestation, with rates in the Amazon region reaching their lowest level since 2014 this year.
However, the capacity of oceans and land sinks to absorb CO₂ is declining. Between 2015 and 2024, land absorption capacity has fallen by 25%, and in the world's oceans by 7.9%. CO₂ sinks include areas like bogs, forests, and seas that can take up large amounts of CO₂.