Snowy Tokyo election rally with PM Sanae Takaichi, capturing unpredictability factors like youth disinterest, party splits, and polls for Japan's February 8 vote.
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Japan's February 8 lower house election unpredictable for five reasons

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Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has called a snap lower house election for February 8, marking one of the most unpredictable contests in years. Factors include a gap between her high approval ratings and her party's lower support, low youth turnout, the coalition split, a far-right challenge, and the winter timing. Surveys suggest the Liberal Democratic Party could gain seats in proportional representation.

As campaigning unfolds for Japan's 2026 Lower House election, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is leaning toward temporarily reducing the consumption tax on food to zero. Caution prevails within the Liberal Democratic Party over fiscal implications, with implementation hinging on post-election discussions. The move aims to address voter concerns amid opposition pushes for tax relief.

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When Sanae Takaichi was elected Liberal Democratic Party president and prime minister, expectations were high that she would reclaim conservative votes lost under her more liberal predecessor. However, as the upcoming Lower House election approaches, it is increasingly uncertain whether those votes will return to the LDP. Despite Takaichi's high personal approval ratings, they have not boosted the party's support as hoped, with aggressive campaigns by smaller conservative parties potentially splitting the vote.

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party marked its 70th anniversary on November 15, 2025, by issuing a statement that highlights its postwar contributions while reflecting on scandals that eroded public trust. Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party vowed to rebuild support and foster a distinctly Japanese society amid ongoing challenges.

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Shunichi Suzuki, secretary-general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said on a Sunday television program that agreeing on a reduction in Lower House seats before the extraordinary Diet session ends on December 17 is difficult. The LDP and Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition agreement last month to submit and pass legislation cutting Diet seats by 10% during this session.

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