Following a decline in industrial production and a rise in commerce, Chilean experts forecast October's Imacec to grow between 1.6% and 2.2%. The National Institute of Statistics reported a 0.4% drop in industrial output and a 7.1% increase in commercial activity over twelve months. Official figures will be released by the Central Bank on Monday.
The National Institute of Statistics (INE) released sectoral data showing a mixed picture for Chile's economy in October. Industrial production fell 0.4% over twelve months, while the Commerce Activity Index rose 7.1%, marking 19 consecutive months of increases.
These indicators have prompted analysts to refine their forecasts for the Monthly Economic Activity Index (Imacec), which gauges monthly economic performance and will be announced on Monday. Alejandro Fernández, studies manager at Gemines Consultores, estimated 2.1% growth, factoring in the same number of working days as October 2024. “With these sectoral data, our estimate for activity growth in the tenth month of the year is 2.1% and a positive variation compared to September with deseasonalized figures,” Fernández explained. He added that the annual projection holds at 2.4% for 2025, with 2026 closer to 2%, depending on politics from March onward.
Santander projected a 2.2% advance, while Coopeuch anticipates 2.0%. The Economic Context Observatory at Universidad Diego Portales (OCEC UDP) sees growth around 2.1%, in line with the 2.0% expected for the fourth quarter of 2025, maintaining expectations for real GDP of 2.4% by year-end. At the lower end, Bice Inversiones estimates 1.6%.
These forecasts indicate a resilient economy despite challenges in the industrial sector, with commerce driving overall momentum.