As Wild Card Weekend kicks off—building on our initial preview of the six matchups—SportsLine's model, run 10,000 times per game, favors chalk like the Rams and Eagles but sees value on home underdogs Panthers, Bears, Jaguars, and Steelers amid tight contests.
Saturday's opener pits the Los Angeles Rams (12-5, -10, O/U 45.5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9) at 4:30 p.m. ET. MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford (4,707 yards, 46 TDs) powers the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense (30.5 PPG) seeking revenge for a Week 13 loss; model projects Rams covering 53% of simulations vs. Panthers' shaky defense.
At 8 p.m. ET, Green Bay Packers (9-7-1, -1.5, O/U 44.5) visit Chicago Bears (11-6) at Soldier Field. After splitting regular-season games, model backs Bears +1.5 in 54% of sims, fueled by home dominance and Packers' four-game skid (Jordan Love back from concussion; Caleb Williams eyes first playoff win).
Sunday at 1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5, O/U 51.5). Jags' eight-game win streak trumps Josh Allen's 0-4 playoff road mark; model picks Jacksonville outright 52%.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6, O/U 44.5) host San Francisco 49ers at 4:30 p.m. ET; model projects Eagles by six.
New England Patriots (-3.5) host Los Angeles Chargers at 8 p.m. ET, with Drake Maye vs. injured Justin Herbert; model has Pats covering 55%.
Monday finale: Houston Texans (-3, O/U 38.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8:15 p.m. ET). C.J. Stroud's nine-game streak meets Aaron Rodgers' savvy, but Texans' 0-6 road playoff history tilts model to Steelers +3 covering over 50%.
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