The Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (Carf) revealed that Colombia's adjusted primary balance reached -2.9% of GDP, the worst level since 1998, without an economic crisis to explain it. This fiscal deterioration has been warned about by guilds and analysts for months. Experts highlight that it indicates excessive public spending that increases indebtedness.
The most recent report from the Autonomous Fiscal Rule Committee (Carf) shows that Colombia's primary balance adjusted for the economic cycle stood at -2.9% of GDP, exceeding the -2.7% recorded in the late 1990s. This figure represents the worst fiscal performance in nearly 30 years, since 1998, and reflects a deterioration in public finances without an underlying economic crisis.
José Ignacio López, president of Anif, explained that the primary balance is the difference between government revenues and expenditures, excluding interest payments on debt. “If it is negative, it means that revenues do not cover expenditures and the government must borrow more. If it is positive, there is room to pay debt or strengthen the fiscal situation,” said López. This imbalance signals excessive public spending, which has raised the country risk, debt costs, and overall fiscal pressure.
López warned that the deficit could be even larger in 2026 and emphasized that this metric is key for risk rating agencies and analysts, as it indicates the need for greater borrowing. Additionally, the adjustment for the economic cycle aims to avoid distortions in crisis periods, where revenues fall and support expenditures rise. However, Colombia is not currently facing such a crisis.
César Pabón, head of economic research at Corficolombiana, stated: “We have not been hit by any recent financial crisis, but we do see that debt levels are almost at the same level as during the 1998 crisis.” Pabón attributes the historical deficit to structural reasons, such as the greater responsibilities assumed by the state after the 1991 Constituent Assembly, without adequate restrictions, generating rigid spending that accounts for nearly 90% of the General National Budget (PGN). Cyclical factors, such as errors in revenue forecasts and economic activity, worsen the situation. In commodity booms, like oil or coffee, revenues rise passively without concrete fiscal efforts, according to López.
