Worldwide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase by 1.1 percent in 2025, reaching a new record high. However, China's emissions, as the largest emitter, show signs of stabilizing, offering some optimism amid growing energy demands met by hydrocarbons.
The annual Global Carbon Budget report forecasts that global fossil fuel emissions will hit 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025, equivalent to the annual output of 9 billion petrol cars. This 1.1 percent rise continues the trend of increasing hydrocarbon burning, despite renewables displacing some fossil fuels. The report, published in Earth System Science Data, highlights that while emissions growth is slower this decade than the previous one, it remains insufficient to combat climate change effectively.
Corinne Le Quéré at the University of East Anglia, UK, who contributed to the report, stated: “We’re not yet in a situation where the emissions go down as rapidly as they need to to tackle climate change.” She added: “But at the same time there is a lot of positive evolution with China’s and India’s emissions growing less rapidly than before.” Earth has warmed by 1.36°C since pre-industrial times, making it nearly impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement without drastic cuts, the authors warn. United Nations secretary general António Guterres recently noted that exceeding 1.5°C is inevitable, urging minimal overshoot through emission reductions ahead of the COP30 summit.
A brighter note comes from China, where the report estimated a modest 0.4 percent emissions increase for 2025. Yet, analysis by Carbon Brief indicates emissions have been flat through the third quarter, driven by a 46 percent year-on-year surge in solar power that offset rising electricity demand. Electric vehicle sales have reduced transport pollution, though increased oil use in chemicals and plastics has balanced this out. The think tank Ember reports a 1.1 percent drop in China's fossil fuel power generation in the first three quarters of 2025, a structural shift, with a 3.3 percent decline in India due to record solar and wind additions. Globally, fossil power generation is expected to stagnate for the first time since the covid-19 pandemic.
Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, UK, remarked: “Things are looking better. If you look at the growth rate, it’s much lower now.” When accounting for carbon absorption by oceans and land, net global CO2 emissions dipped slightly in 2025, aided by the end of El Niño conditions, though warming is reducing sink efficiency.