The New England Patriots host the New York Jets in NFL Week 11's Thursday Night Football matchup, with the Patriots entering on a seven-game winning streak. New England is favored by 11.5 points, while the over/under sits at 43.5 points. A projection model simulating the game 10,000 times leans toward the over, projecting 53 combined points.
The New York Jets visit the New England Patriots for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 11, kicking off at 8:15 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Both teams arrive with momentum: the Patriots have won seven straight games, including a 28-23 road victory over Tampa Bay on Sunday, while the Jets secured back-to-back wins for the first time in over a year with a 27-20 defeat of Cleveland in Week 10.
New England holds a commanding all-time series lead of 75-56-1 against the Jets and has dominated at home, winning 13 of the last 14 meetings there, including a 25-22 victory last season. Current betting odds list the Patriots as 11.5-point favorites, with an over/under of 43.5 points and a money line of New England -794 and New York +536.
The SportsLine projection model, which has generated over $7,000 in profits for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and is on a 47-32 run on top-rated selections since 2024, simulates every game 10,000 times. It projects 53 combined points, leaning over the total, and identifies one side of the spread hitting well over 50% of the time.
For the Jets to cover as underdogs, they boast a 5-2 against-the-spread record this season in that role, covering three of their last four overall and going 3-1 ATS on the road. New York produced two non-offensive touchdowns in their win over Cleveland and has just one giveaway over their last two games. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has struggled recently, with three interceptions, three fumbles (one lost), and 13 sacks over his last three games.
The Patriots, however, have covered in all five games against teams with a .400 or lower winning percentage. They rank eighth in scoring offense and sixth in scoring defense, with the league's No. 1 run defense that could neutralize New York's strength. The Jets rank last in passing offense, averaging just 104.8 passing yards over their last four games.