Democrat Abigail Spanberger continues to lead Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race as the long-running federal shutdown, a fast-moving redistricting push in Richmond, and higher electricity bills dominate voter concerns. Former President Barack Obama rallied for Spanberger in Norfolk on November 1, urging supporters to turn frustration into votes.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial elections this year, making Tuesday’s vote a national bellwether. Multiple recent polls show former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger ahead of Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by mid- to high-single digits, and in some surveys by double digits, with independents tilting toward Spanberger. Cost of living issues top the agenda for most voters. (washingtonpost.com)
The campaign has widened into a referendum on several flashpoint issues — the federal shutdown and federal workforce cuts, redistricting, political violence, and policies affecting transgender students — even as voters’ top concerns remain prices, housing and jobs. An NPR network explainer summarized that mix, noting Spanberger’s emphasis on protecting federal workers and “chaos from Washington,” while Earle-Sears has accused her of playing “political football” with the workforce during funding talks. (vpm.org)
Shutdown and federal workforce
- The federal government has been shut down since October 1, with hundreds of thousands of employees furloughed or working without pay. Analysts warn the shutdown could shave billions from fourth-quarter GDP if it persists. Virginia, home to one of the nation’s largest concentrations of federal workers and contractors, is especially exposed. (politico.com)
- Roughly 320,000 Virginians work for the federal government (by residence), though about 187,000–194,000 federal civilian jobs are physically located in the state, depending on the data source and month. (coopercenter.org)
- Earlier this year, the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) drive — initially helmed by Elon Musk — accelerated cuts across agencies. Public media coverage reported “thousands” of Virginians were laid off amid those efforts, and the state created resources to help displaced workers. Earle-Sears has defended the cuts as targeting “waste, fraud, and abuse,” while Spanberger has courted federal worker support. (vpm.org)
Energy prices and the grid
- Voters’ power bills are rising, driven by record-high capacity charges on the PJM grid and growing electricity demand from Northern Virginia’s data-center boom. PJM’s last two capacity auctions posted steep increases, with a 2026–27 record clearing price for most of the region; Dominion has sought fuel and base-rate increases to cover higher fuel and capacity costs. (reuters.com)
- Analysts cite a combination of retiring thermal plants, transmission constraints and the surge in large-scale computing load. Federal regulators have approved fast-track measures PJM says are needed to avoid near-term shortfalls. (apnews.com)
Redistricting push in Richmond
- In late October, Democrats in the General Assembly advanced a constitutional amendment that would allow mid-decade changes to Virginia’s U.S. House maps in response to GOP-led states redrawing theirs. The measure cleared the House and Senate on party-line votes and would still need to pass again in the next session and win voter approval in a statewide referendum. Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears, who presides over the Senate, was on the floor during the Oct. 29 special session. (reuters.com)
Political violence and the attorney general race
- The attorney general contest tightened after Democratic nominee Jay Jones apologized for 2022 texts fantasizing about killing then–House Speaker Todd Gilbert. Spanberger condemned the remarks and, when pressed at the gubernatorial debate, said voters should make their own choice; Earle-Sears called the episode disqualifying. A Washington Post–Schar School poll found the gubernatorial race remained a double-digit lead for Spanberger even as the AG race narrowed. (apnews.com)
Transgender policies remain a hot rhetorical focus but a low priority
- Republicans have spotlighted policies affecting transgender students in sports and school facilities. Polling shows relatively few Virginia voters rank those policies as a top concern; a Post–Schar School measure placed it at about 3–4 percent. Spanberger has accused Republicans of “villainizing kids,” while Earle-Sears frames her stance as defending girls’ spaces — at times likening her position to a civil rights cause. (washingtonpost.com)
Obama’s closing push
- On November 1 in Norfolk, Obama urged supporters to translate discontent into ballots and castigated what he called the administration’s “lawlessness and recklessness.” Local coverage quoted him telling the crowd that boos don’t register — “They hear votes.” Spanberger leaned into a theme of steady, bipartisan governance. (reuters.com)
