The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) released the November 2025 Market Expectations Survey (REM), drawing on forecasts from 46 consultancies and banks. Analysts predict declining inflation, moderate GDP growth, and a stable exchange rate for next year. The report outlines a scenario of relative economic calm.
As it does monthly, the Central Bank (BCRA) released the November 2025 Market Expectations Survey (REM). This poll, conducted among 46 consultancies and financial institutions, outlines forecasts for key economic variables in 2026, with an optimistic tone emphasizing gradually declining inflation.
On inflation, participants expect the reduction achieved in 2025 to deepen, reaching 1.5% monthly by May 2026. For GDP growth, a 0.9% increase is forecasted for the first quarter of 2026, following the pattern from the third quarter of 2025.
Regarding the exchange rate, the consensus points to $1,720 per dollar by December 2026. The Reference Active Rate (TAMAR) for private banks is projected at 20.9% nominal annual for that date, equivalent to a 1.7% Effective Monthly Rate (TEM). The unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2025 is estimated at 7.5% of the Active Population, unchanged from the previous REM.
In foreign trade, exports are anticipated at USD 85.667 million (an increase of USD 935 million from the prior survey) and imports at USD 77.140 million (USD 695 million more). This would yield a trade surplus of USD 8.527 million. Finally, the Top 10 average forecasts a primary surplus of $13.2 trillion for this year, with no participant expecting less than $10 trillion.