The La Niña phenomenon will return with moderate intensity, bringing a drier winter with frosts to Mexico in the 2025-2026 season. Authorities like the National Meteorological Service estimate 48 cold fronts, slightly below the historical average. While temperate days are expected, intense cold episodes are anticipated in various regions.
The La Niña phenomenon, marked by unusual cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, will alter global atmospheric circulation and impact Mexico's winter climate. According to the National Meteorological Service (SMN), the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this moderate condition will produce generally drier and warmer winters, though frosts, strong winds, and possible snowfalls are not ruled out.
The season will span from October 2025 to March 2026, peaking in December and January. An estimated 48 cold fronts are forecast, fewer than the historical average, but some carrying polar air masses. In highland areas of the center and north, such as Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, and Mexico State, thermal contrasts will be stark: days with increased solar radiation and nights with sharp temperature drops, leading to frosts.
For instance, Cold Front 17, entering in the first week of December, will bring temperatures down to -10°C in 18 states. In the south and southeast, like Veracruz, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Oaxaca, above-average rains may occur due to shifts in moisture flows. La Niña differs from El Niño, which warms the Pacific and boosts precipitation; instead, it cools the waters, cutting rains and intensifying cold fronts.
Experts note that La Niña could persist until April 2026, transitioning gradually to a neutral state. States hit by Cold Front 17 include Chihuahua and Durango with lows of -10 to -5°C, and others like Sonora, Zacatecas, and Puebla with -5 to 0°C. Winds up to 70 km/h are expected in the north and northeast, with potential snow in the mountains of Durango, Chihuahua, and Sonora.