A new Emerson College poll shows Texas state Rep. James Talarico leading Rep. Jasmine Crockett by 9 points in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat. On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton edges out Sen. John Cornyn in a tight race. The poll highlights divisions along racial and gender lines among Democratic voters.
The Emerson College poll, released on Thursday, indicates that James Talarico, a state representative from Austin, holds a 47 percent to 38 percent advantage over Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the March 3 Democratic primary for Texas's open U.S. Senate seat. Crockett entered the race in December, bringing national recognition and strong fundraising, but Talarico has countered with significant campaign spending and a robust online presence.
Democrats see potential in Texas amid opposition to President Trump, though the state has eluded them in statewide contests. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer described Texas as a "very possible" opportunity for pickup, though not among the party's top priorities.
The poll reveals clear demographic divides: Talarico garners majority support from Hispanic and white voters, while Black voters overwhelmingly back Crockett. Among men, Talarico leads 52 percent to 30 percent; women are nearly split, with 44 percent for Talarico and 43 percent for Crockett.
In the Republican primary, Paxton leads Cornyn 27 percent to 26 percent, with Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16 percent. No candidate nears 50 percent, pointing to a likely May 26 runoff. Cornyn faces backlash from some Republicans for backing a bipartisan gun control measure under President Biden. Paxton, a decade-long attorney general with MAGA appeal, endures ongoing state and federal probes.
Democrats prefer Paxton as the GOP nominee, citing his liabilities. Hypothetical general election matchups show Talarico and Crockett tying Paxton at 46 percent each, while Cornyn leads Talarico 47-44 and Crockett 48-43. Voters prioritize the economy, followed by immigration and threats to democracy.
