Tesla shares climbed on Wednesday as investors anticipated the company's upcoming third-quarter earnings report. Analysts suggested that the expected profit decline might be less severe than feared, buoyed by strong delivery figures. The stock's performance reflects optimism about new model launches despite challenges like the loss of federal EV tax credits.
On Wednesday, October 15, Tesla stock (TSLA) rose about 1% in pre-market trading, reaching $434.65. This extended gains that have lifted the shares more than 6% year-to-date and 95% over the past 12 months. Investors are focusing on the electric-vehicle maker's third-quarter earnings, due next week, after Tesla reported deliveries of almost 500,000 vehicles—surpassing Wall Street's expectation of roughly 445,000 units.
Analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $0.54 for the quarter, a decline from $0.72 a year earlier. However, the delivery beat has prompted some to raise estimates, believing Tesla could exceed expectations. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu noted, “The magnitude of the drop might not be as bad as feared,” attributing this to Tesla's new lower-priced 'Standard' trims of the Model 3 and Model Y, each starting around $5,000 cheaper than higher-end versions. These options aim to appeal to price-sensitive buyers amid the recent loss of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit, which could dampen demand in the fourth quarter.
Looking ahead, attention is on Tesla's growth plans, including a rumored compact model—often called the Model Q or Model 2—potentially launching in select markets in 2026 to target the mass market. Wall Street's consensus on the stock remains divided: based on 37 ratings over the past three months, it is a Hold, with 15 Buy, 13 Hold, and 9 Sell recommendations. The average 12-month price target is $365.31, suggesting about 16.3% downside from recent levels.