Avatar: Fire and Ash is projected to dominate the Christmas box office with a $75 million four-day haul, outpacing new releases like Anaconda and Marty Supreme. The James Cameron-directed sequel continues its strong run, while counterprogramming options provide variety for holiday audiences. Overall, the 2025 box office is expected to reach $8.8 billion to $8.9 billion, slightly up from last year.
The holiday box office is set for a robust Christmas stretch from December 24, 2025, through New Year's Eve, building on last year's $396.3 million performance. Despite falling short of the anticipated $9 billion for 2025, the total is forecasted at $8.8 billion to $8.9 billion, a 1% to 2% increase over 2024's $8.7 billion, according to distribution sources. Attendance from January 1 to December 22 stands at 745 million tickets, with average prices of $13.29 for general admission and $17.65 for premium formats.
Leading the pack, 20th Century Studios' Avatar: Fire and Ash is estimated to earn $75 million over four days, including a $55 million three-day weekend, down 38% from its $89.1 million opening. The film, directed by James Cameron from a story by Cameron, Rick Jaffa, Amanda Silver, Josh Friedman, and Shane Salerno, has crossed $398.7 million worldwide. Its domestic total reaches $102.5 million after a $13.3 million Monday, playing at 3,800 locations. The audience score remains at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.
In second place, Sony's meta comedy remake of the 1997 Anaconda, starring Jack Black and Paul Rudd, targets over $20 million from 3,400 locations. With a $45 million net production budget, it appeals most to men under 25 and holds a 39% critics' score on Rotten Tomatoes. Previews begin December 24 at noon, followed by Thursday showtimes at 2,900 theaters starting at 9 a.m.
Rounding out the top spots, Focus Features' Song Sung Blue, a Neil Diamond tribute starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson, opens in 2,400 locations on Christmas Day after Christmas Eve previews at 2 p.m. The film, directed by Craig Brewer, earns a 73% fresh rating and draws best awareness from adults over 25. Kate Hudson is nominated for Best Female in a Feature Comedy/Musical at the Golden Globes.
A24's Marty Supreme, directed by Josh Safdie and starring Timothée Chalamet, expands widely after grossing over $1 million in limited New York and Los Angeles runs. Certified 95% fresh, it attracts men over 25 and boasts 197 million social media impressions across platforms. RelishMix reports social engagement 47% above drama genre norms, fueled by Chalamet's 21.5 million followers and Tyler, the Creator's 39 million. Fan reactions highlight excitement for Chalamet and table tennis themes, with comments like 'A24 + Chalamet + Safdie = excellent' and comparisons to Forrest Gump.
Holdovers like Angel Studio's David ($25.2 million cumulative) and Lionsgate's The Housemaid ($22.4 million) are expected to contribute $12 million to mid-teens each over four days, alongside Song Sung Blue and Marty Supreme. The 2026 slate promises a rebound to over $9 billion with major releases including Super Mario Bros. Galaxy Movie and Avengers: Doomsday.
