The Central Bank reported a 2.2% growth in October's Imacec, driven by commerce and services. While the year's accumulated expansion reaches 2.5%, experts warn that December's high comparison base could complicate the government's 2.5% GDP projection for 2025. If achieved, the average under Gabriel Boric's administration would surpass Michelle Bachelet's.
The Central Bank's report showed economic activity in October grew 2.2% annually, exceeding expectations and fitting within the projected range of 2.25% to 2.75% for the year. This result lifted the accumulated expansion from January to October to 2.5%, positioning the economy well for Hacienda's target. Minister Nicolás Grau welcomed the figure, stating that “this 2025 will have more activity, more commerce, more investment, more household consumption than we thought at the start of this year”.
Commerce led with an 8.1% increase, highlighting sales of machinery, equipment, food, and vehicles in both wholesale and retail. Services rose 2.5%, driven by health and transportation. In contrast, goods production dropped 0.2%, hit by lower copper extraction in mining and reduced electricity generation, though manufacturing increased due to higher food processing. The non-mining Imacec advanced 2.6% annually.
Yet, hitting 2.5% would demand a similar average in November and December, despite the elevated 6.8% base from December 2024. Economists like Valentina Apablaza from OCEC-UDP forecast 2.2% for November and 1.8% for December, yielding an annual GDP around 2.3%. Mauricio Carrasco from Universidad San Sebastián estimates 2.4% and 1.9%, for a total of 2.4%. Others, such as Alejandro Fernández from Gemines and Felipe Alarcón from Euroamerica, see between 2.4% and 2.5%.
Gustavo Díaz from Instituto Libertad notes the normalization with services and commerce as key drivers. On monetary policy, experts anticipate a 25 basis point cut in the Policy Rate in December, lowering it to 4.5%, influenced by October's zero inflation and Federal Reserve decisions.