Bitcoin has declined about 40% from its October peak of $126,000, entering technical bear market territory amid heavy selling pressure. The cryptocurrency rebounded slightly to around $79,000 on February 2, 2026, but remains down over 10% for the week following $2.2 billion in liquidations. Analysts point to historical support levels near $58,000 as a potential bottom.
Bitcoin's sharp decline accelerated last week, with the cryptocurrency dropping 11% to around $78,700 by February 2, 2026, after plunging below $75,000 over the weekend. This marks the largest weekly drop since March 2025 and follows a 40% correction from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October, the fourth quarter of the current four-year cycle driven by halving events that halve new supply every four years.
The sell-off synchronized with broader market weakness, as copper fell nearly 4% from its record high above $14,500 per ton on January 30, alongside drops in gold, silver, and platinum. Over $2.2 billion in crypto derivatives were liquidated in a 24-hour period, accelerating the downside through forced deleveraging of leveraged long positions, according to Adrian Fritz, chief investment strategist at 21shares. "Liquidations in perps accelerated the downside momentum, rather than discretionary spot selling," Fritz said.
Technical indicators signal further risks. Bitcoin fell below the Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart, a bearish shift historically linked to deep bear phases. The 200-week moving average, currently at $57,926, has served as a reliable bottom in past bear markets of 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, where it acted as support—briefly breached in 2020 during the Covid crash and in June 2022 when prices dipped under $22,000 before reclaiming it in October 2023.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 15, indicating extreme fear and panic selling, with negative funding rates and rising exchange inflows showing reduced liquidity and holder stress. Short-term investors face average losses of 15%, with purchase prices near $90,000, while the spot price sits 25% below the 200-day EMA at $99,000. Crypto-related stocks like Robinhood (down 9%), Coinbase (down 3%), and MicroStrategy (down 3%) continued to lag, even as U.S. indices rose—Nasdaq and S&P 500 up 0.6%, Dow up 0.9%.
Ethereum fared worse, down 55% from highs to around $2,200. Analysts suggest a potential bottom in the $50,000-$60,000 range by late 2026 if historical cycles hold, though U.S. spot ETFs and large holders like MicroStrategy (average cost $76,000 per BTC) pose ongoing risks. The ISM manufacturing PMI expanded to 52.6 in January, the first in 12 months, but investors await Friday's jobs report for Federal Reserve rate cut clues.
