The Kansas City Chiefs' season took a hit with a loss to the Houston Texans, eliminating them from the AFC West race at 6-7. Despite long odds of just 9.1 percent, a narrow path to the playoffs remains if multiple scenarios align in their favor. Patrick Mahomes remains optimistic about the team's effort down the stretch.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been dethroned from the top of the AFC West after nine years, following their Sunday night defeat to the Houston Texans. Now at 6-7, the team is out of contention for the division title but clings to faint playoff aspirations. SportsLine projections give them only a 9.1 percent chance of postseason entry, hampered by head-to-head tiebreakers against the Texans, Buffalo Bills, and Jacksonville Jaguars, plus the worst conference record among the top 10 AFC contenders.
Patrick Mahomes, reflecting on the loss, emphasized resilience: "We know the (playoff) chances are getting lower and lower, but I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have, every opportunity we get." Mahomes boasts a perfect 9-0 record in wild-card and divisional rounds, making the Chiefs a formidable playoff opponent if they qualify.
For a wild-card berth, the Chiefs must win their remaining four games against the Los Angeles Chargers, at the Tennessee Titans, versus the Denver Broncos, and at the Las Vegas Raiders to reach 10-7. Their home strength—5-2 this season, with three straight wins over the Chargers and nine over the Broncos—offers hope.
The Chargers (9-4) need to finish no better than 10-7, ideally losing to the Chiefs and Broncos to even division records at 4-2, where Kansas City holds the common-games tiebreaker. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts (8-5) face the NFL's toughest schedule remaining, including games against the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans; a 9-8 finish or worse aids the Chiefs, who own the head-to-head edge.
The Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens, both 6-7, would need to win out to hit 10-7, an unlikely feat given their schedules: Dolphins face the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New England Patriots, with cold-weather challenges; Ravens close against the Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Patriots, and Steelers. Tiebreakers favor the Chiefs over the Colts and Ravens, though conference record could complicate multi-team ties.
If all aligns, hypothetical AFC standings could include the Chiefs at 10-7 as the No. 7 seed behind the Patriots (14-3), Broncos (13-4), Texans (12-5), Steelers (9-8), Bills (12-5), and Jaguars (12-5). Missing the playoffs would mark the first such absence in Mahomes' career.