The National Meteorological Service reported that cold front number 38 will affect various regions of the country with low temperatures and frosts starting March 3, 2026. Meanwhile, a heat wave will persist in southern states with highs up to 45°C. Rains are expected in more than 20 states, signaling the gradual end of the extreme heat.
Cold front number 38 of the season will extend across the Baja California Peninsula, generating strong winds, dust devils, and high waves, according to the National Meteorological Service (SMN) of the National Water Commission (Conagua). This system, along with a trough, will cause minimum temperatures of -5 to 0°C with frosts during the early morning of Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in mountainous areas of Baja California, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Mexico State, Tlaxcala, and Puebla. Temperatures of 0 to 5°C are forecast in mountainous areas of Sonora, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Querétaro, Veracruz, and Oaxaca.
By Wednesday, March 4, the front will move to the northwest, intensifying the cold with lows of -10 to -5°C in mountainous areas of Chihuahua and Durango, and -5 to 0°C in Sonora, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Mexico State, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Puebla. Other areas such as Baja California, Baja California Sur, Nuevo León, and more will experience 0 to 5°C.
In contrast, a heat wave will prevail in Durango, Jalisco, Michoacán, Morelos, Puebla, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, with highs of 40 to 45°C on March 3 in northwest Guerrero, the Isthmus of Oaxaca, and Chiapas. Temperatures of 35 to 40°C are expected in Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, and other northern and central states, while 30 to 35°C will affect San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, and more. For March 4, the heat will remain similar in the south, though the SMN indicates a gradual weakening of the responsible anticyclonic system from that day in areas like Durango, Jalisco, Morelos, and Puebla.
Additionally, low-pressure channels and moisture from the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea will generate rains and showers in the afternoons in the Yucatán Peninsula, west, and center of the country, with the strongest in Chiapas. Starting March 2, 26 states will see intervals of showers, including punctual heavy ones of 25 to 50 mm in Nuevo León, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, and showers of 5 to 25 mm in Coahuila, Durango, Mexico City, and more. Isolated rains will occur in Sinaloa, Nayarit, Hidalgo, and Querétaro. This weather shift marks the end of the heat wave and the start of rains in most states, including Mexico City.
