FIFA is reportedly evaluating a revision to the 2026 World Cup seeding process that could place Italy in Pot 1 based on world rankings, even if they qualify via play-offs. This comes as Italy trails Norway in Group I qualifying. The proposal aims to base all pots on FIFA rankings rather than qualification routes.
FIFA's potential tweak to the 2026 World Cup draw could significantly improve Italy's group stage prospects. Under the current system, teams qualifying through play-offs are placed in Pot 4, facing tougher opponents from higher pots. However, reports from Football Meets Data and Calcio e Finanza indicate FIFA is considering using official FIFA World Rankings for all four pots.
Italy, coached by Gennaro Gattuso, currently sits second in European qualifying Group I, three points behind Norway with two matches remaining. Norway holds a +16 goal difference advantage, making direct qualification dependent on Norway dropping points against Estonia next week. Should Italy finish second, they would enter play-offs, a route that led to their absences from the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.
If approved, the change would likely position Italy in Pot 1 due to their strong global ranking, avoiding matchups with top seeds like Argentina, France, or Brazil. This adjustment forms part of FIFA's review of the expanded 48-team format hosted in North America, potentially offering Italy a fairer draw after past qualification heartbreaks.
The proposal, highlighted in coverage from November 9, 2025, underscores ongoing efforts to refine the tournament structure ahead of 2026.