Latino voters who shifted toward Donald Trump in 2024 moved back toward Democrats in last week’s off-year elections, with notable gains in New Jersey, Virginia and parts of California. The trend raises questions about the durability of Trump’s coalition amid economic unease and aggressive immigration enforcement, while giving Democrats fresh hope for 2026.
Democratic strength among Latino voters rebounded in key races on November 4, 2025, after some surveys showed Trump winning close to half of Latinos nationwide in 2024. In New Jersey, Democrats posted especially large improvements in Hudson and Passaic counties and carried heavily Latino communities that had been competitive or even friendly to Trump a year earlier, according to Politico and the Washington Post.
New Jersey’s Passaic County — where Latinos make up a large share of the population — backed Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill by a double-digit margin. Preliminary county tallies show Sherrill winning Passaic by more than 20,000 votes, consistent with Politico’s description of a decisive swing from 2024. Politico also reported that Union City, one of the most heavily Latino cities in the state, swung 47 points toward Democrats compared with last year. And within New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District, which Trump carried in 2024, Sherrill carried the district by roughly 19 points — a data point Democrats view as meaningful ahead of 2026, even as Republicans are targeting the district’s Democratic incumbent, Rep. Nellie Pou.
In Virginia, Democrats improved markedly in Latino population centers. Politico reported that the two most heavily Latino cities each swung more than 15 points toward Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger; the Washington Post documented that Manassas Park backed Spanberger by about 42 points, roughly double Democrats’ advantage there in 2024.
California showed a similar pattern in down-ballot voting. Proposition 50 — a Democratic-backed redistricting measure — outperformed Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential share by about 12 points in Imperial County, one of California’s most Latino counties (about 86 percent Latino by Census estimates), based on county returns and independent analyses. Democrats say the measure’s strong performance in Latino-heavy areas underscores the year’s broader trend.
Democratic strategists attribute the gains to affordability concerns colliding with voter backlash to Trump’s second-term immigration crackdown. “Latinos are rejecting Republicans’ broken promises of lower costs and a strong economy,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez. Way to Win president Tory Gavito argued that Trump’s approach over the last year undercut his 2024 inroads with Latinos: “In the last 11 months, he’s done everything but think about Latinos’ interests.”
Republicans counter that their party still performed far better with Latinos than in past decades and insist their message will resonate as the economy evolves. “Republicans will continue to earn the support of Hispanic voters because we are working to deliver opportunity, security, and a better life,” said Christian Martinez, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s national Hispanic press secretary. In California, Democratic strategist Juan Rodriguez said this year’s results reflected both pocketbook and immigration effects: “The Latino revolt was economic and personal — Trump hit their wallets with tariffs and our communities with raids.”
Analysts caution against reading the 2025 map straight into 2026. Off-year electorates differ from midterm turnout, and Trump’s role next year could reshape who shows up. Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, said Democrats cannot rely on discontent with Trump alone: “They have a lot to vote against. The challenge for Democrats is giving them something to vote for.”
Even in places where Sherrill and Spanberger posted large wins, local ticket-splitting suggests both parties have work to do. Democrats say the path to retaking the House runs through sustained, early engagement with Latino communities on affordability and immigration alike. Republicans say they will test that claim next November.
