SportsLine's advanced computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has locked in its Week 11 predictions, favoring the Chicago Bears to cover as 2.5-point underdogs against the Minnesota Vikings and the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover as 5.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. The model enters Week 11 on a strong 47-32 run for top-rated picks since 2024 and is up over $7,000 for $100 players on NFL picks. Week 11 features nine divisional matchups, including potential playoff previews.
Week 11 of the NFL season brings a heavy slate of divisional games, with nine such contests marking the most of any week so far. Key matchups include the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, where Pittsburgh is favored by 5.5 points with a total of 49.5. The Baltimore Ravens face the Cleveland Browns as 7.5-point favorites, while the Los Angeles Rams travel to the Seattle Seahawks as 3-point underdogs, and the San Francisco 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals with a 3-point edge.
Non-divisional highlights include a potential Super Bowl preview between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Buffalo as a 5.5-point home favorite. Lamar Jackson returned to practice Thursday with a knee issue, boosting Baltimore's chances against Cleveland after their earlier 24-point win. The NFC East takes center stage with three games: Washington Commanders versus Miami Dolphins in Madrid, where Miami is favored by 2.5 points; Philadelphia Eagles versus Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, with Detroit as 2.5-point underdogs; and Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night, with Dallas as 3.5-point road favorites led by Dak Prescott.
The model's top picks focus on the Bears-Vikings game at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Minnesota committed eight false starts in a recent home loss to Baltimore, the second-most by a home team since 2000. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy has struggled with six interceptions, four fumbles (one lost), and 15 sacks in four starts. Chicago, meanwhile, has won six of its last seven games and gone 5-2 against the spread in that span. The model sees Chicago covering over 50% of the time.
For Steelers-Bengals, Cincinnati ranks last in points and yards allowed, with bottom-three marks in pass defense, takeaways, and red-zone defense. The Bengals have only three spread wins, tied for the fewest in the league, and are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games with rest. Pittsburgh is 8-4 against the spread at home since last year, and the model projects the Steelers to score a touchdown above their average while covering in over 50% of simulations. The over also hits in more than 50% of simulations.