Tesla's vehicle sales in China showed a slight uptick in November 2025, with Model Y sales rising 10% year over year. However, overall figures for the first 10 months of the year remain below 2024 levels. The company faces challenges in meeting growth expectations amid a focus on autonomous driving technology.
Tesla's performance in the Chinese market has been under scrutiny, particularly following the launch of an updated Model Y and a long-wheelbase version, the Model Y L, earlier this year. Despite some positive signals, the data suggests a tempered recovery rather than a boom.
Through the first 10 months of 2025, combined sales of the Model Y and Model 3 in China totaled approximately 458,000 units, a decline from around 500,000 in the same period of 2024. This continues a downward trend, as 2024 sales were already lower than those in 2023. In November 2025, Model Y sales increased by 10% compared to November 2024, reversing an 11% drop from the previous year. Still, this growth does not yet match 2023 volumes.
Reports indicate that Tesla vehicles are sold out in China for the remainder of 2025, with delivery estimates pushed to January or February 2026. The Model Y L specifically is booked until February. While this avoids end-of-quarter incentives, the wait times—spanning just a few weeks to two months—fall short of expectations for a significant demand surge from the model updates.
Globally, Tesla's sales through the first 10 months of 2025 reached 1.29 million vehicles, down from 1.41 million in 2024 and 1.44 million in 2023. Elon Musk had projected a 30% increase for 2025 over 2024 by utilizing full production capacity, but current figures show otherwise. Musk emphasizes that Tesla's future growth hinges on autonomous driving and robotics, rather than traditional vehicle sales expansions.
December sales in China are likely to rise year over year, but annual totals for 2025 appear unlikely to surpass 2024, let alone 2023 levels.